LINEAR XY PLANE OR SOMETHING

As the site rises in traffic, my adderall self rises to more bets. he literally leaves nothing in the account when i go in there to try and slide a sober bet in. of course, he knows better than to leave money in there for me to fuck up again.

DETROIT LIONS (-3) over the Broncos: Stealing my thunder huh? You give me the 1% chance a team has from coming back from 15 down with six minutes in the fourth quarter and squeeze a ton of value out of it? that’s messed up dude.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+9.5) over the Texans: Nope, don’t like this one at all. feels like 10-0 final score texans to me. i don’t think adderall self realizes i have to watch these games because he seriously bets the most money on the most boring teams. SIDE BET: TEXANS (-6.5) FIRST HALF and FIRST HALF (UNDER 21). this is getting way too fucking confusing. i’m going to need an explanation if this actually hits.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3) over the Seahawks: I find it weird I haven’t pushed a bet yet this year. i wonder if adderall self knows that ced benson is out this game. he’s the best fucking running back in the league. he’s averaging like 17 inches a down. Seattle is prob going to cut that in half with the backup. No shot.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+3.5) against the Panthers: This is just cruel man. Cam Newton wins you all this money and you’re going to go and bet against him? that’s seriously fucked up. you deserve nothing but a career day from newt and a trip to the atm ya bitch.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (bought to +7) against the Bills: Alright, let me get this straight. the week i find out i’m probably allergic to beer i have to sit and cheer for the redskins, the jags, and the vikings? This is probably the end of me. no possible way i can do that without 70 beers and some FuKcup, That game is fire by the way. you all should play it. I don’t care if adderall self makes money, drunk self makes up fire games.

Alright now there’s a bunch of half bets or smaller so i’m just going to list them and forget about it. they’re all obscure and reaching arthouse betting shit like its season four of breaking bad. boring.

COLTS (+9) and OVER (43.5) against the Titans

SAINTS (-14) against the Rams

DOLPHINS (+9.5) against the Giants.

10 POINT TEASER (MIA +19.5, SKINS +16, BROWNS +19)

No sober bets this week. but look for tmf and the rest of the fire crew monday on the real housewives of beverly hills. yeah, it’s a long story. some other time.

Wet and Wild Like a Newborn Child

My adderall self and I called a truce last week and he explained his bets pretty darn well. the eagles read was right on (they stopped the run), the 49ers would have shut out the lions if it weren’t for a fumble recovery inside their 20 and they still covered (plus stafford almost pulled off another backdoor), and the bills at 3.5 worked out just fine. barring a goddamn steelers collapse which made absolutely no sense, good job adderall. i’ll take the reins from here though.

BEARS/BUCS OVER (22pts) 1ST HALF and UNDER (43.5) GAME: …yeah i have no fucking idea what i’m doing now. we all knew cutler was still with Kristen Cavallari because he never stopped pouting. truth finally came out. now he can relax and go back to throwing those interceptions he’s seem to have forgotten the last couple games. my notes say something about 1st half run defense. like i give a shit.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2.5) over the redskins: well, john beck is the quarterback of the team now and ryan torain is the running back. i wonder what it’s like to make millions of dollars a year and you go out to a ridiculously expensive restaurant and the host just figures you’re some hick who won the lottery. actually that would probably still rule because of the millions.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-3) over the Texans: Titans, texans. one name has nothing to do with tennessee and the other has too much to do with texas. now, the tennessee texans versus the houston titans would be…not that interesting either.

ATLANTA FALCONS (+3) 1ST HALF and LIONS (Bought to -3) GAME and UNDER (47.5): uh, this is straight up fucking wager vomit. next.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (-6) over the Chiefs: Both these teams can suck my dick.

HEDGES FROM LAST WEEK: The line on the chargers game has moved, as predicted, from chargers +2.5 to chargers -2. i’m going to wait on it to -3 and get that sweet ass middle. steelers started at -3.5 and has since gone to -4. i think it’ll go higher but i’m cool with steelers just winning that game.

PISSED OFF SOBER BET: Hey, it’s me, sober tmf again. it’s been awhile. adderall self shut me down a couple weeks ago because of an 0-7 start, but i got so fucking pissed off seeing tebow’s face all over the tv i decided to take out a loan from adderall self and bet on the winless dolphins (-1) to beat the shit out of that guy. if there’s one thing god hates, it’s gambling, so all those people betting FOR tebow are gonna get owned. i think that’s how religion works. shit, i should probably have figured that out first. Sports Guy out. Kahn!

Go Big or Keep Going Big

I did my calculations and figured out that if the season ends today, I would be up 3 standard bets considering all the varying amounts. That kind of sucks. But i looked back over what i got wrong, and besides two blowouts, all the losses were close. I like my chances going forward. That’s why i woke up with a platter of bets on the table, just let my adderall self go wild. Not only that, i’m letting him take the wheel on the comments. So here he is, the adderall self:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (PICKEM) over the Redskins: I picked the Eagles in week one and have stayed away since. Their run defense was shaky in that game and has obviously gotten worse since. Additionally, the lines against the Eagles have been very hard to react to because they are a heavily bet team in Vegas. However, it seems like those gamblers have gone broke, because the line is zero. There is now value here based on 1) Vick’s unlucky INTs, and 2) a team that has a RB that can be tackled easily, unlike Turner, Jackson, other Jackson, and Bradshaw. Although the defense will still give up yards, we can be confident there won’t be many long runs like we’ve seen. Add to that the explosive eagles offense, which hasn’t always been on the same page but can still get down the field, and this line should be eagles -3.

6 POINT TEASER (STEELERS, PACKERS, RAVENS): This is a bad week for lines because of the mismatches going on. Therefore, it’s a good time to get value out of teasers, which I usually stay away from. If you’ve noticed, I bet a lot of small lines, anywhere from the 2.5 to 4.5 range. That is because I feel like the better team wins a lot of those games, and all you have to do is figure out who the better team is. This is why I’ve bet the Bengals a lot. I had them at 9-7 this year when the over/under was 5.5 wins. It was important to get a lot of value out of them early, because if they end up not covering that spread into late season, I can already count on making money on hedging.

SAINTS (-3) IN THE FIRST HALF against the Bucs + HEDGE BUCS (+4.5) GAME: The Saints were very very good in the first half last year. They also were this year, but the match ups weren’t right to bet it. That changed last week and now this week. However, the saints are prone to backdoor covers, mostly because of their shitty red zone defense. The bucs have played four teams in the top five of red zone defense this season, and Josh Freeman has still been able to score late. If they don’t come back to win this game, it’s logical to see them coming within three points. Therefore, we are going for the middle.

SAN FRAN 49ERS (+3) IN THE FIRST HALF against the Lions: This is an interesting line since the general public money seems to be on the Lions after monday night. To say these teams are even is a bit of a joke, especially considering every Lions fumble has gone their way. SF has a legit defense, but never underestimate the Stafford comeback. That is why I bet the first half. The great thing about Vegas is they pretty much just cut their total lines in half for the 1st half lines, so in a situation where Detroit comes out slow and SF comes out fast, the line should actually be even, and the game line at Lions -3.

WEEK 7 EARLY STEELERS (-3.5) over Cardinals and CHARGERS (+2.5) over Jets: These are two bets I placed on the early lines for next week because I feel like they are going to move significantly in order to get a good middle with a hedge. The steelers solved a lot of their O-line problems by just shortening passes and might blow out the Jags, moving this Cardinals line way up, and the Chargers always get better as weeks go on and after bye weeks. Also, im not sold the Jets are good, and on the slight chance they look shitty versus the Dolphins, this line will move the other way.

FUN BET: I put a small amount on the Bills versus the Giants. This is one of those ‘weird, too good to be true’ lines, which I try to avoid, but it seems like not many people think the Bills are good, despite their #1 DVOA for three straight weeks. I believe the Bills will slow down (and I think Fitzpatrick already has), but they might have one or two more good lines like this before it starts catching up to them. Although the really great value has already passed.