The Reliables

It’s almost quitting time, and as we end a great season of betting on adderall, I paid tribute to those who got me here, the old reliable teams that happened to have good lines this week. regardless of what happens, there is undeniable proof adderall works when it comes to betting, and you should get a bankroll together for next season cause we’re going to hit it harder, bigger, and, well, just harder and bigger.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-6) over the Colts: The texans like to blitz, and as predicted, had a hard time blitzing against cam newton, who eats blitzes for breakfast. problem is, the colts don’t have anybody back there that can juke a defender. chalk up multiple sack fumbles and maybe even one for a touchdown. this line is too low.

CINCINNATI  BENGALS (BOUGHT TO -3) over the Cardinals: Bengals have run into some good offensive lines these past few weeks, but can put games away against bad ones. they don’t even need to this week. cancel the john skelton comeback.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (+2) over the Chiefs: Okay, the raiders haven’t exactly been great to me this year, but the Chiefs have the worst defense in the league against short passes, which is all Palmer throws, or should throw. hopefully the coach will rein him in and forget about that comeback last week. the raiders played a good game.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (WIN +120) against the Lions: The chargers are not too difficult to figure out. they excel against teams that do one thing well, and have trouble against teams who do a couple things well or nothing well. add to that the fact that stafford is wildly overrated (he’s not even top 5 QBs in the 4th quarter) and that even norv turner isn’t stupid enough to do man coverage on megatron in the 4th quarter, and this game is out of reach.

NE PATRIOTS (BOUGHT TO +9) over the Dolphins: Simply put, the dolphins have not won a game against a team with good third down efficiency. it’s not just about good passing offense, since the bills are now 0-24 on third down in two games against them. also, the more efficient on third down, the bigger the margin of loss for the fins.

NY GIANTS (+3) over the Jets: Jets can’t sack anybody on third down, and eli manning is the best in the league on third down. they convert, run clock, play average defense, and make the jets wonder if they should draft a QB.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (BOUGHT TO -7) over the Bucs: This isn’t a good line (the last time they played carolina was a 3.5 underdog, which was only three weeks ago), but i can’t very well not honor the team that has won me so much money, whether betting for or against them, over the last 15 weeks. so, i’ll wager a very small amount as an honor rake to cam and company. thanks guys.

SF 49ERS (-1.5) and the (OVER 38 PTS) against the seahawks: Seattle is also up there in betting wins, and although i’m not sure about this game, i do think when seattle wins, the total score is more than 38 80% of the time, and when SF wins, it’s 50% of the time. so, simple middle value here.

SOBER FAREWELL BET

Sober self had a bad season. He basically got banned from betting months ago, but made a little inroads on his hedging bets. i think the highlight of this season was when adderall self had to bet the over 39 (win) of the SF/AZ game to hedge sober self’s SF -3 bet (loss). if there is any indication that i’m handling my multiple personalities well, it’s that.

So, we’ll give one more to the sober self.

TEXANS/COLTS OVER (38 PTS): CAUSE WHY THE FUCK NOT?

Half Bet Marathon

Not gonna lie, I don’t like the lines this week. I don’t like my bets, and considering I made them that’s not a good sign. I’ll let adderall give a brief, shitty explanation why he went half-bet even though he’s on a dope winning streak.

HOUSTON TEXANS (+3) over the Bengals: This is a product of fear over bad quarterback replacements. Shaub wasn’t exactly lighting it up this year. I don’t think there is enough of a bump to any replacement player to suggest these two teams are even (vegas gives 3 points to home team), especially the way houston can cover #1 receivers.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+10) over the lions: This is a crossroads game, one team is out, one team needs to prove themselves big time. The Vikings will open the playbook a little more this game, and Ponder will have his moments. Meanwhile, a tense Detroit crowd will gulp every time a flag gets thrown. When’s the last time Stafford had something to play for?

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-9) over the Redskins: The patriots are actually good at defending dump offs and down the field plays, which is pretty much the only two plays the redskins run. the rest of the cover is brady. good luck with that “solid” run defense when brady throws 50 times.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-3) versus the Panthers: People are going nuts on the panthers right now, but like i said last week, it’s all about who their offense matches up to, not their defense. unless cam has figured out single blitz packages (he hasn’t), this will be another long day for him like last time they played.

ARIZONA/SF OVER (39 pts): This is mostly a hedge to my dumb alter ego sober bet.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (+11) and the UNDER (52 points) against the Packers: Packers have had trouble covering spreads against good RBs and running QBs, and this week should be no different. they thrive on turnovers and carson palmer simply isn’t allowed to make mistakes because of his conservative passing orders from the coach. if green bay covers, it will be because oakland can’t score, not because of a blowout, hence the under bet.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-16.5) and the OVER (40.5) against the Colts: This is middling 101. If the colts can get those backdoor TDs like last week, over hits. if they don’t, middle.

TEASER: HOU (+13), OAK (+21), BUF (+17.5): I need to stop doing teasers.

SOBER TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE BET

SF 49ERS (-3) over the cardinals: Can you believe this line? SF is sooo good. They have so much to play for too, of COURSE this isn’t a trap game. no way in hell this loses. I’m so sober and smart. 

SOBER HEDGING BETS

I’ll give the hedging bets to my sober self, to see if he can’t get back to even.

BUFFALO BILLS (WIN +300) over the Chargers

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (WIN +140) over the Dolphins

Valuetown Bonanza!

What is up with the lines this week? Vegas must have no idea what to do with all these backup QBs and pending coach firings because shit is out of whack. most of my bets this week are apparently for hedging purposes against a couple season over/unders but i’ll dish out some additional bets I got going and let adderall take the wheel.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (+3.5) over the Bucs: Carolina has been a consistent winner for me this year, and it’s mostly because while everyone is focused on how bad their defense is, it’s really their match ups on offense that determine whether or not they cover the spread, which coincidentally has double meaning here. Tampa is the worst team in the league against the spread offense, and whatever they try to vomit out when Josh Freeman is on the field won’t be enough points to cover this one.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-13) and OVER (37.5pts) over the Rams: I’ve had my way with middling this year, and this one should be no different. the rams, if they excel at anything, it’s blitzing. problem is, smith will be handing the ball off so much it’s not going to matter.

CHICAGO BEARS (-7) over the Chiefs: This is a “todd haley doesn’t watch game tape” bet. i have yet to see KC throw their entire defense at one player, even though that’s what they should do against forte. todd haley is a stupid person. that’s my advanced analysis. seriously.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6.5) and the OVER (42pts) against the Bengals: This is both a statistics bet and a feel bet. The steelers really rested their offense last week playing conservatively, and i believe it’s because they were looking ahead to this game. meanwhile, the bengals played an exhausting run game against the browns. they’re not going to find the holes on the left side this time, and aj green will get the coverage he deserves for once.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6.5) over the Browns: This might feel like the Seattle game where the ravens got beat, but looking back, that game was a comedy of statistical flukes. the browns aren’t so lucky, and each end around will likely be stuffed for a loss. however, they may break their 0-11 streak on the coin toss. i’m giving that to them.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-2.5) over the Jaguars: Ah, the chargers, a team i’ve stayed away from all year, finally getting a line deserving of their shitty luck and soft run defense. problem is, the chargers can stack the box and make Luke/Blaine throw it. Welcome to los angeles, jags. We’ll teach you to throw the ball.

EAGLES (+7) COWBOYS (+5.5) and PATRIOTS (-10) in a 10 pt teaser: This is just fun for everyone. It’s three lines that are tasty on their own, but dealing with three teams who really have no rhyme or reason to how they cover. the eagles are a mess, the cowboys throw away games late, and the pats might decide to let a back door cover in. solution? teaser.

SOBER HEDGING BETS

I’ll give the hedging bets to my sober self, to see if he can’t get back in the game a little bit.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (WIN +140) over the Dolphins

TENNESSEE TITANS (WIN +110) over the Bills

NY JETS (-3) over the Redskins

DENVER BRONCOS (+1) over the Vikings

LIST ‘EM AND LEAVE ‘EM

Nobody gives a shit about things during the holiday. Here are the bets on adderall with no explanation, except that they’re fire.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) over the Colts.

VIKINGS (+19.5), REDSKINS (+13.5), STEELERS (-.5) in a ten point teaser.

VIKINGS (WIN OUTRIGHT +365) over the Falcons

HOUSTON TEXANS (-3) and  (UNDER 37.5) against the Jags

CINCINNATI  BENGALS (-7) over the Browns

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3) over the 49ers

DALLAS COWBOYS (-7) and the (UNDER 44.5) against the Dolphins

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-.5) in 1ST QUARTER and (-3.5) in FIRST HALF

Enjoy the holiday errone.