Go Big or Keep Going Big
I did my calculations and figured out that if the season ends today, I would be up 3 standard bets considering all the varying amounts. That kind of sucks. But i looked back over what i got wrong, and besides two blowouts, all the losses were close. I like my chances going forward. That’s why i woke up with a platter of bets on the table, just let my adderall self go wild. Not only that, i’m letting him take the wheel on the comments. So here he is, the adderall self:
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (PICKEM) over the Redskins: I picked the Eagles in week one and have stayed away since. Their run defense was shaky in that game and has obviously gotten worse since. Additionally, the lines against the Eagles have been very hard to react to because they are a heavily bet team in Vegas. However, it seems like those gamblers have gone broke, because the line is zero. There is now value here based on 1) Vick’s unlucky INTs, and 2) a team that has a RB that can be tackled easily, unlike Turner, Jackson, other Jackson, and Bradshaw. Although the defense will still give up yards, we can be confident there won’t be many long runs like we’ve seen. Add to that the explosive eagles offense, which hasn’t always been on the same page but can still get down the field, and this line should be eagles -3.
6 POINT TEASER (STEELERS, PACKERS, RAVENS): This is a bad week for lines because of the mismatches going on. Therefore, it’s a good time to get value out of teasers, which I usually stay away from. If you’ve noticed, I bet a lot of small lines, anywhere from the 2.5 to 4.5 range. That is because I feel like the better team wins a lot of those games, and all you have to do is figure out who the better team is. This is why I’ve bet the Bengals a lot. I had them at 9-7 this year when the over/under was 5.5 wins. It was important to get a lot of value out of them early, because if they end up not covering that spread into late season, I can already count on making money on hedging.
SAINTS (-3) IN THE FIRST HALF against the Bucs + HEDGE BUCS (+4.5) GAME: The Saints were very very good in the first half last year. They also were this year, but the match ups weren’t right to bet it. That changed last week and now this week. However, the saints are prone to backdoor covers, mostly because of their shitty red zone defense. The bucs have played four teams in the top five of red zone defense this season, and Josh Freeman has still been able to score late. If they don’t come back to win this game, it’s logical to see them coming within three points. Therefore, we are going for the middle.
SAN FRAN 49ERS (+3) IN THE FIRST HALF against the Lions: This is an interesting line since the general public money seems to be on the Lions after monday night. To say these teams are even is a bit of a joke, especially considering every Lions fumble has gone their way. SF has a legit defense, but never underestimate the Stafford comeback. That is why I bet the first half. The great thing about Vegas is they pretty much just cut their total lines in half for the 1st half lines, so in a situation where Detroit comes out slow and SF comes out fast, the line should actually be even, and the game line at Lions -3.
WEEK 7 EARLY STEELERS (-3.5) over Cardinals and CHARGERS (+2.5) over Jets: These are two bets I placed on the early lines for next week because I feel like they are going to move significantly in order to get a good middle with a hedge. The steelers solved a lot of their O-line problems by just shortening passes and might blow out the Jags, moving this Cardinals line way up, and the Chargers always get better as weeks go on and after bye weeks. Also, im not sold the Jets are good, and on the slight chance they look shitty versus the Dolphins, this line will move the other way.
FUN BET: I put a small amount on the Bills versus the Giants. This is one of those ‘weird, too good to be true’ lines, which I try to avoid, but it seems like not many people think the Bills are good, despite their #1 DVOA for three straight weeks. I believe the Bills will slow down (and I think Fitzpatrick already has), but they might have one or two more good lines like this before it starts catching up to them. Although the really great value has already passed.